The Bayesian Tragedy

Article by Jonathan Lewis

What does the astonishing sinking of a mega yacht have to do with Small Craft Advisor? As it turns out, quite a bit. While the investigations are in their early stages, it appears that more than two of the watertight compartments were subjected to down flooding and a behemoth of a boat quickly disappeared below the surface because of a freak and powerful weather event, sadly taking several of its occupants with it.

While the Perini Navi Bayesian is 55.9 meters in length, has an 11.51 meter beam and draws 9.73 meters with the keel lowered, this 473 gross ton vessel may have a worse righting moment and stability number than a SCAMP.  

Last night I watched a short YouTube video from Denmark on a sailing excursion aboard a beautiful Vivier Ilur named Nomvula. One person commented “I like that you removed the longitudinal seats in the stern. But where did you place the buoyancy blocks that were in these seats?” The owner replied, “I just left them out…” What might the consequences be of such an omission?

I communicated with Reuel Parker (Author of The Sharpie Book) concerning my failed sharpie experience in the Netherlands. I don’t think he’ll mind if I share some of his wisdom here. In his response he wrote, “Modifying traditional designs with different hardware is often a calculated risk” and “A heavily-ballasted retracting keel in an Egret sharpie may insure self-righting ability in deep water, but as you pointed out, it severely compromised the boat’s original utility and purpose.” Someone called BRM rightly raised the issue of a ballasted daggerboard in the comment section of my last article.

In small craft we have to be cognizant of the risks and limitations of our chosen vessels and adapt appropriately. Weather conditions are crucial to our decision making process. If we were anchored off Sicily on a megayacht, other than securing things on deck and keeping watch, the maelstrom that overcame that vessel could hardly be conceived of, let alone anticipated. Had the keel been lowered to its full deployment we don’t know whether that 45 tons would have been a sufficient factor for the Bayesian to survive. She might have recovered because of the increased stability provided by that portion of the ship’s ballast being at far greater depth. The other approximate 100 tons of fixed ballast in the hull would lead one to believe that unless the boat was under sail, there was certainly enough stability in the boat to handle anything that could possibly be anticipated while at anchor. That assumption is obviously wrong.

We can’t prepare for everything, nor can we predict what might ultimately be thrown our way. When I was involved in luxury yacht charters decades ago, we never briefed our paying passengers on safety procedures. The last thing we wanted was for them to think they were at risk. They were our guests. Their comfort and well being was our responsibility. Now I’m of the opinion that as crew we were wrong not to involve them in conversations and drills on safety measures. We all listen to airplane flight crews inform us of proper procedures to exit the fuselage even though airplane travel is statistically the safest mode of transport. I think now we have a duty to ensure that people aboard our vessels, no matter the boat’s size, are given basic safety knowledge so that they can spend their time afloat in a manner that promotes safety and confidence. The unforeseen may happen, but at least we’ll have a shot. •SCA•